Are We At The End of the G’s Era? Why 6G May Never Arrive

Are we approaching the end of the G’s era? Why the sixth generation in cellular might not arrive (and no, we’re not talking about Dua Lipa…)

Cellular companies began rolling out fifth-generation networks starting in 2019. Six years later, in some countries there is still no deployment of true fifth generation (Stand Alone) or full deployment. The industry has grown accustomed to a situation where approximately every 10 years there is a new cellular generation that brings a quantum leap, not only in capabilities and applications but mainly on the consumption side (the business justification).

In recent years, discussions, planning, and development of the sixth generation have already begun, with the assumption that it should replace the current generation for the next decade. But more and more voices are claiming that the fifth generation has brought the industry and consumers to a balance point that does not justify more advanced technological development, alongside investments of trillions of dollars worldwide.

Those who support the need for the sixth generation (meaning a need for more data and speed) raise four main arguments: First, the volume of users is expected to increase because skilled young consumers are “replacing” unskilled older users. The second claim is that new applications are being developed that will increase consumption, like AR/VR glasses. The third argument is that AI is creating a revolution before our eyes, and the fourth argument is that “something new will surely be invented” that will create a revolutionary change (like the iPhone did).

On the other side, more and more industry players (from cellular companies, not equipment manufacturers) and analysts argue that the field has reached saturation – and when I say “the field” I mean the scope of data and speed on the user side (Access Network).

There is no doubt that video is the king of data and speed, but in the last two years we’ve seen a significant decline in growth rates compared to previous years.

Annual growth rates have dropped from 40-50% to less than 20%, and even toward 10%. The claim is that we have reached a plateau in consumption after years of accelerated growth.

Beyond that, there are actually quite good answers to the claims mentioned. For example: growth in users due to “generational turnover” is a nice sociological headline, but statistically it’s a matter of a generation or more and the annual impact is small. Similarly, AR/VR glasses are ultimately a negligible product compared to cellular users, even if they grow tenfold. All this without mentioning that their use will probably come at the expense of other existing consumption.

Regarding AI, it is indeed “a fire in a thorny field,” but its impact on the user side is not significant in terms of data and speed. The impact is very significant in other places in the value chain, such as data centers. Watching movies created by AI will probably come at the expense of other video. As for the last claim of “something big will surely be invented,” since the invention of the iPhone, which truly revolutionized consumption, we haven’t seen anything similar despite all the technological development. This is a type of revolution that probably doesn’t happen every decade or two.

And therefore the question arises: who exactly needs a new faster generation with even more massive data volumes? We don’t see uses that create justification. It’s somewhat similar to a situation where the transportation ministry would invest billions to build new roads suitable for very fast cars. There are such cars at the edge, but there’s no justification for it – as long as commercially we have saturation of travel speed.

What is expected to be the focus of cellular infrastructure in the coming years? Efficiency and improving coverage to quality and complete. These are not simple challenges at all.

In conclusion, rest assured that cellular infrastructure manufacturers will not give up easily. Articles, publications, research, and position papers will continue to pump the next hype. The question is whether this time, unlike all previous generations, the market won’t take the bait.

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